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#Mario Singh

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QE3 will work, but not for long

September 6, 2011 by Mario · Leave a Comment
Filed under: my paper

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mypaper 20110906 QE3 will work, but not for long-

(As written for My Paper on 6 September 2011. Click here to enlarge)

The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday was ugly and totally
unexpected.

The median forecast of 86 economists called for an addition of 68,000
jobs. However, after the announcement by the US Labour Department,
everyone was caught off-guard when the result showed a big fat zero.

This was the weakest reading since September 2010, and meant that that
the US economy failed to add any jobs in the month of August. The
unemployment rate stayed at 9.1per cent.

To make matters worse, July payrolls were revised down from 117K to
85K, which meant that the hiring was smaller than initially reported.

As I read more into the report, I came across another interesting
point. In August, the average hourly earnings for all employees on
private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 3 cents, or 0.1per cent, to
$23.09. This decline followed a gain of 11 cents in July.

Additionally, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm
payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour over the month to 34.2 hours.

The summary statement for all the dismal data above reads as "not only
were there no new jobs created in August, but those who had jobs were
working less and getting paid less as well."

We're calling for a mild recession at this point," said Julia Coronado,
chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York. "We'll
see QE3 definitely," she said.

In my view, with the latest jobs report, QE3 is not so much a question
of "if" but a question of "when."

What are some of the options that the Fed has when it makes its
decision for QE3?

I would like to discuss 2 of them here:

1) Operation Twist
2) Asset Purchases

Operation Twist basically involves selling short-term bonds and using
the proceeds to buy long-term bonds. Essentially, it serves to lengthen
the maturity period of the portfolio.

Asset Purchases will have a bigger impact, although its effect is
debatable. The first round of asset purchases was in November 2008,
round two was in November 2010, and round three could be as early as
20th Sept, which is the date set for the next FOMC meeting.

Whichever option the Fed chooses, it is with three end results in mind:

1) To lower yields
2) To stimulate growth
3) To lower unemployment

The stubborn problem is that although the Fed has done well in bringing
down long-term yields, growth has still been almost non-existent and
unemployment is still hovering above 9per cent.

Will QE3 work? Yes - but not for long. However, for the Fed to stand
aside and not do anything would be an even bigger mistake for global
confidence.

Trade Call

Short EUR/USD at 1.4185

EUR/USD has fallen over 400 pips in the last one week, and the
downtrend looks set to continue with the European debt crisis hogging
the headlines and the horrid NFP report last Friday.

We will go short once prices retrace to 1.4185 and the stop loss is
placed 50 pips above the entry. We will have 2 profit targets on this
trade and exit the final position with a favourable 1:2 risk/reward
ratio.

Entry Price = 1.4185
Stop Loss = 1.4235
1st Profit = 1.4135
2nd Profit = 1.4085

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Money Matters

September 1, 2011 by Mario · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Press Release

the sun mario singh 20110826 small Money Matters-

(As featured in The Sun, Malaysia's national newspaper, on 26 Aug 2011.
Click here to enlarge)

Education alone won't ensure a successful venture into online Forex
trading

It is hard not to be in awe in the presence of Mario Singh, a Forex
trading guru and founder of FX1 Academy Pte Ltd. Decisive in his words
and pragmatic in his views, Mario has created a set of philosophies
that is said to have been successful in guiding 20,000 people
financially. Or so he says.

"FX1 is currently providing education on online Forex trading to
approximately 20,000 people the world over," says Mario.

"The largest transfer to wealth is happening now. Over the last year,
nine Asian countries have raised interest rates. The list included
Malaysia, Singapore, India, China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Indonesia,"
he says, adding that he hopes to help some one million people become
millionaires through Forex trading over the next 10 years.

Tall order but the 35-yearold doesn't believe it is wishful thinking.
Given the current economic landscape that sees money pouring into Asia,
the Singaporean native believes he is at the right place, at the right
time to do so.

"When money comes into a country, it usually flows to stocks and
properties. Early indication of such occurrence is when property prices
surge. In this scenario, the government would step in by raising
interest rates to ensure that money is kept in the bank and stop
flowing towards the property market. This is what's happening in Asia
right now," says Mario.

As such, he believes that the time is right for Asians to leverage on
the momentum in order to make money.

Mario, who previously ran a fairly successful cleaning service in his
homeland, says online Forex trading is a small but growing investment
option. Thanks to advanced electronic execution methods, Forex trading
has managed to bring down transaction costs, increase market liquidity,
and attract greater participation from many customer types.

Mario explains that electronic or online trading has provided a more
convenient access for retail traders to trade in the foreign exchange
market. It has been reported that the turnover of Forex trading reaches
US$4 trillion per day.

"As a comparison, New York Stock Exchange, which is the largest stock
market in the world, only trades around US$150 billion per day. I
daresay Forex is an easier and bigger game," says Mario.

However, online Forex trading also has its share of notoriety. The
rapid growth of online Forex trading has resulted in rampant Forex
scams.

Asked about the risks in the field, Mario says, "People have this
misconception that online trading is risky. As with other forms of
investment, you only lose a lot when you don't know what you're doing."

According to him, proper education is a must before venturing into
online Forex trading. And this is where his FX1 Academy comes into
play.

"FX1 Academy provides you with the former. Here, you will be equipped
with knowledge of currency swaps, and market trends, etc," he explains.

But he is quick to add that merely education alone won't ensure a
successful time with online Forex trading. He stresses on the
importance of partnering with reliable brokers, who serve as agents for
traders in the broader FX market.

"To be successful in online Forex trading, you must have both. You can
have the best bullet but if you have a lousy gun, you still can't shoot
properly. At FX1, we provide you with the business knowledge. Using
this knowledge, you then should find a reliable broker to help you
trade," he says.

The academy offers programmes tailored to different needs and markets.

"At Life Seminar division, we have basic, intermediate and advanced
programmes specifically designed for new traders," says Mario, adding
that the seminar is conducted face-to-face.

There's also Online Webinar, a cyber seminar, and the Daily Coaching,
an online system that enables traders to chat, ask questions, and seek
advice from the coaches.

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Updates from Jackson Hole Meeting

August 30, 2011 by Mario · Leave a Comment
Filed under: my paper

Over the weekend, Singapore voted in its next President, with Dr Tony
Tan pipping Dr Tan Cheng Bock to the finish line by a mere 0.35% of the
popular vote.

In the Forex Market, a different election of sorts was happening, with
the primary candidate being the current Federal Reserve Chariman, Ben
Bernanke.

Many traders were betting on the fact that Bernanke would announce more
easing, or QE3 during his meeting with other central bankers at Jackson
Hole, Wyoming. The US dollar initially nose-dived against several
majors in anticipation of the announcement, but recovered quickly as
Bernanke stopped short of revealing any concrete measures.

However, in a dramatic turn, the US dollar weakened again as the
markets came to a close when traders realised that QE3 was probably
going to happen. Not now, just later.

The clue came from Bernanke's surprise announcement that the next Fed
meeting on 20 Sept will be for two days instead of one.

"The Fed will continue to consider those and other pertinent issues,
including of course economic and financial developments, at our meeting
in September, which has been scheduled for two days instead of one to
allow a fuller discussion," Bernanke said in the speech.

This is telling that Bernanke might need more time to convince his team
of upcoming options.

In his speech, I also noted that Bernanke was somewhat more optimistic
that growth would pick up in the second half of 2011. For the first
half of 2011, the pace of US growth was nearly stagnant, expanding at a
rate of less than 1%.

He also made reference to inflation staying below 2%, which would meet
the Fed's expectation and its mandate for price controls. However, that
statement is only true for "core inflation", which does not include
food and transportation costs. Should they be included, the figure
comes in at 3.6%.

Furthermore, should Bernanke announce QE3 in September, the US dollar
will be further battered and would drive it lower against other world
currencies.

This would ultimately push inflation higher as well.

There is no press conference scheduled after the FOMC meeting in
September, but there is one after the meeting in November. If Bernanke
announces measures in November instead of September, the press
conference would give him an opportunity to explain his decision to the
world.

September or November, one thing is for sure - I expect more stimulus
from the Fed in the coming months, and that would send the US dollar
lower against the rest of the majors.

Top News This Week

China Manufacturing PMI. Thursday, 1 Sept 2011, 9am. I expect figures
to come in at 51.3 (previous figure was 50.7).

USA non-farm payrolls. Friday, 2 Sept 2011, 8.30pm. I expect figures to
come in below 90K (previous figure was 117K).

Trade Call

Long AUD/USD at 1.0635

AUD/USD has risen a massive 300 pips in the last 1 week. This brief
rally is further enhanced by Ben Bernanke's speech last week which
would fuel the optimism for risky assets. Psychological Resistance
located at 1.6000 has been breached, and further upside is seen on the
AUD/USD.

We will go long once prices rise to 1.0635 which is a few pips above
the previous high. A stop loss is placed 50 pips below the entry and we
will have 2 targets on this trade.

Entry Price = 1.0635
Stop Loss = 1.0585
1st Profit = 1.0685
2nd Profit = 1.0735

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USD's safe-haven status saves it from crashing

August 23, 2011 by Mario · 2 Comments
Filed under: Trade Call, my paper

mypaper 20112308a USDs safe haven status saves it from crashing-

(As written for My Paper on 23 August 2011. Click here to enlarge)

Close to 8 trillion US dollars has been wiped off global equity markets
since the S&P downgraded the US debt less than a month ago. Suffice to
say, every trader would take this as a cue that the US dollar is
weakening.

In the currency maket, the scenarios are played out slightly
differently. Since we are always looking at currency pairs, we need to
understand how one currency moves against another.

Interestingly enough, in the 2 weeks right after the S&P downgrade, the
US dollar weakened against currencies like the Japanese Yen (JPY) and
the Swiss Franc (CHF), but actually strengthened against the Aussie
(AUD), Kiwi (NZD) and the Loonie (CAD).

Why is that?

The answer, lies in the status of the US dollar as a safe haven. In
times of fear and panic, money leaves risky assets like stocks and
commodities, and finds in way into safe assets like bonds.

The US bond market, or Treasuries, is by far the largest and most
liquid in the world, accounting for almost half of the world bond
market.

The commodity-linked currencies like the AUD, NZD and the CAD are
considered riskier currencies, hence they tend to fall against the US
dollar in times of fear, panic or low growth.

The only reason why it has fallen against the Yen and the Franc is
because the latter currencies are viewed as "safer" assets compared to
the US dollar.

One of the biggest reasons for this is due to the fact that both
countries, Japan and Switzerland, run current-account surpluses. This
means that they don't need to rely on foreign capital to balance their
books. The US on the other hand, runs a current-account deficit.

This week, central bankers from around the world will meet at Jackson
Hole, Wyoming for their annual conference. It's the same place Ben
Bernanke said the Fed was prepared to "do all that it can" to ensure a
smooth economic recovery.
What subsequently followed, and what I termed as the "Second Wave", was
the Fed's injection of USD600 billion into the markets in November
2010.

Will Bernanke announce intentions for QE3?

Here's a clue for all traders and investors to chew on: last week,
ten-year yields fell as low as 1.97%, the lowest ever on record, which
tells us that the markets are pricing in about USD500 billion in
Treasury purchases by the Federal Reserve.

Top News This Week

USA GDP q/q. Friday, 26 August 2011, 8.30pm. I expect figures to come
in at 1.1% (previous figure was 1.3%).

Trade Call

Sell USD/CHF at 0.7770

After the uptrend started on 10 August, USD/CHF has been moving in a
range on the hourly chart. Support is detected at 0.7785 and Resistance
is at 0.7995. With the upcoming meeting between the central banks this
week, the bias for the US dollar is to the downside.
We will go short once prices close below the support level of 0.7785.
Entry is taken 15 pips below the support level and a protective stop is
placed 90 pips above the entry price.

We will have 2 targets on this trade.
Entry Price = 0.7770
Stop Loss = 0.7860
1st Profit = 0.7680
2nd Profit = 0.7590

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Strong Yen, Franc and Bank Intervention

August 16, 2011 by Mario · 4 Comments
Filed under: Trade Call, my paper

mypaper 20110815 Strong Yen, Franc and Bank Intervention-

(As written for My Paper on 15 August 2011. Click here to enlarge)

Every trader knows the importance of trading with the trend.

However, there is one indomitable force in the Forex Market that can
temporarily over-ride the theory of trend. That force is known as
Central Bank Intervention (CBI).

CBI occurs when central banks think that their currency is either
trading too high or too low against a basket of major currencies. They
then intervene forcefully by either buying or selling their own
currency to bring rates to their desired levels.

Over the last two weeks, two central banks in particular, have signaled
their intentions more than the rest: Japan and Switzerland. As
exporting nations, both Japan and Switzerland cannot afford to have a
strong currency. A strong currency would affect overseas sales and
erode corporate profits for some of their largest exporters.

In fact, car giant Toyota (based in Japan) and food giant Nestle (based
in Switzerland) have lost billions simply because the Yen and the Franc
have strengthened significantly.

On 4 August, Japan intervened in the Forex Market by selling over 4
trillion yen. This caused USD/JPY to sky-rocket over 300 pips in a
matter of hours.

Interestingly enough, that move has been totally negated by the Forex
Market, which has prompted Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda to
hint at another possible attempt.

"An unstable situation is continuing," Noda said yesterday during a
television talk show. "As foreign exchange market matters are my
prerogative, I will continue to closely watch the markets and take bold
action if it becomes necessary."

Similarly, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has dropped hints that it
might intervene and weaken the Franc, which has soared 25% year-to-date
against a basket of nine currencies. It has already boosted liquidity
in money markets and cut borrowing costs to zero.

The Swiss government and the central bank are in "intense" talks over a
possible franc target to stem currency gains, and may set such a target
in the coming days, Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung reported.

This begs the question: why are the central banks telling us that they
might intervene? Aren't they concerned that traders will jump in for
the free-ride?

In reality, central banks want traders to help. By signaling their
intention, Japanese and Swiss central banks are hoping that traders
will step in to help them weaken the Yen or the Franc; so that they
wouldn't need to finance the large-scale operation entirely on their
own.

They are not really concerned if traders are making money out of the
move, since their main concern is to stabilise the markets by
regulating monetary policies.

It is for this reason that we are seeing USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/CHF
heading upwards since the start of the week.

Top News This Week

GBP Retail Sales. Thursday, 18 August 2011, 4.30pm. I expect figures to
come in at 0.3% (previous figure was 0.7%).

Trade Call

Sell GBP/USD at 1.6230

On 11 August, GBP/USD reached a monthly low of 1.6108 on the hourly
chart. Resistance is detected at 1.6308 and Support is at the last low
of 1.6108. I expect the currency pair to continue to trade within this
200 pip range.

Our bias is for a short. A short is taken once prices drop to 1.6230. A
protective stop is placed at 1.6320, a few pips above the previous
high. We will take profit before prices reach the support level,
exiting at 1.6130.

Entry Price = 1.6230
Stop Loss = 1.6320
Profit Target = 1.6130

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